80 Out -- Why are so many wrong?

Discussion in 'Articles' started by site_admin, May 26, 2004.

By site_admin on May 26, 2004 at 8:15 AM
  1. site_admin

    site_admin Administrator Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

    You are playing 501 and it's time to hit that out. You've got 80 left, what do you do? Trip 16, Double 16? Is that your shot? Really? Are you Phil Taylor? Even if you were, what are the odds you'd hit that out? Are you REALLY sure?

    Let's take a look at an 80 out shot on the 16's...and let's assume you ARE Phil Taylor (11 time winner of the Ladbrokes.com World Masters Championship)...

    Phil hits about 30% to 33% triples, so assuming he is looking at 80 out, what would he do?

    To hit a trip 16 double 16 out shot, he needs to shoot the triple first, but he has a 67 to 70 % chance of missing!! WHAT? This is Phil Taylor we are talking about! Holy Cow!

    If I told you there was a way to turn that around would you be interested? How about a 67 to 70% chance you would HIT your first dart? How about the second dart too?

    OK, back to the out: If Phil shoots and he misses the Trip 16 (which is 67-70% likely) he has 64 left. 64 + 16 =80 right? OK, so now in order to take that out he MUST hit a triple or a double BEFORE he can throw again at a double.

    I can almost guarantee he WILL NOT take that chance. He'd rather win he game then take a chance like that...how about you?

    Let's look at it this way: You've got 80 and you been banging away at the 20's all night, so why not hit another one? You have at least a 70% chance of hitting that puppy (at least if you are Phil Taylor but likely many intermediate players have a high chance too -- certainly higher then the Trip 16).

    Now, if you hit that single 20 -- just what you wanted -- then you only need one more (again a 70% chance of getting it) to set you up for the double out....a double tops -- again right where you have thrown all night!

    If odds are important -- and anyone that says they are not is lying, or has never played and tried to get to a Double 16 -- then take the odds better out!

    80 Out is: Single 20, Single 20 Double 20.

    BUT, what if you accidentally hit a Triple 20 with that 1st dart? Easy Peasy Mate, toss in a Double 10 for the finish...

    In fact, if you were to hit a Single 5 you still have a shot (albeit tougher) by going Single Bull Double Bull, or Trip 17, Double 12. In fact the list goes on and on, but starting with a fat single 20 is the way to go.

    So why do so many insist that 80 Out is Trip 16 Double 16? Perhaps they never really looked at the out and the odds of hitting it, or just assume that since some old fella at the pub told 'em that's the way then that's the way.

    Incidentally, I've hit 80 out by going Trip 16, Double 16, but that's not the best way to take that shot when it counts. However, it can be fun when it is less important, or you are feeling very cocky. But if my money were on the line, and I was shooting in a game I must win, I WILL ALWAYS go Single 20, single 20, double 20 -- 80 Out.

    Erik
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Articles' started by site_admin, May 26, 2004.

    1. theDragon

      theDragon New Member

      20's are the way to go to allow maximum percentage of taking the out with the three darts in your hand. Other combo's are o.k. to do if you want to, but I believe the crux of this point was what would be the most efficient and reasonable out shot to take. Nothing's wrong if you take it out a different way, but try taking it out that way v.s. the 20 way and you will find the 20's will win for most players in general over the long run.
       
    2. Thanks Rob -- you got exactly what I was saying :)



      But then someone of your caliber would! ;)
       
    3. warnock

      warnock New Member

      i think the only way to go is 20's because the % age is in favour of the 20 cause you shoot the 90 % of the game why stop shooting for the if you dont have too..
       
    4. Just a note one why I wrote the article so long ago (and I agree still with it) is that I was told I was doing this wrong and the RIGHT way was to go T16, D16 since that WAS 80 out.



      I disagree and often chuckle to myself when someone holding three darts goes this route becuase inevitably they don't check it out.



      I've also chuckled to myself each time I play those same people, the ones who do that and tell me it is THE ONLY way to shoot 80 out, while I go up, miss the T20, hit another single 20 and check the remaining 40 out to win the leg/set/match.



      The point really, is that they are wrong and T16/D16 is NOT the only way to take out 80 and in fact, many of the worlds top players do not do it that way even with only two darts in hand.
       
    5. EricS150

      EricS150 New Member

      I think that you are wrong about this. IF you were Phil Taylor and went that way, he would most likely be aiming high to intentionally hit singles, but that in itself is stupid to limit yourself to only 1 dart at a double, especially if whoever you are playing is sitting on an out. So Phill would not be aiming for a single, not if a win is on the line. (no one should)



      80-16 =64 as you said. It leaves more options for intermediate players to shoot at and choose the one that they are most comfortable shooting.

      64-48=16 (d8)

      64-42=22(11) not the best leave but still another option.

      64-14=50 which is what Phil or most any other pro would shoot.



      80-60=10 (d5)

      10-5=5 no out left.



      Phil hit doubles at a 47% clip in the UK BLue Square open this year (2009), i assure you that he did not shoot a shot that left himself one dart a double if the game was on the line.



      Again, the best shot to shoot is what ever you are comfortable with. I personally like shots that give me more option in the event that i miss. For me T16 is my prefered start for 80. But that can also change on a game to game basis, as it will with everyone who toes the line.
       
    6. jakesy

      jakesy New Member

      Two words, muscle memory. In 501 you shoot at T20 all day long. the odds of you hitting a T20 with that second dart and busting 80 are higher than one would think and i have done exactly that more than once. I was told by several qualified mentors you NEVER shoot at a number that can bust your out. If your practicing properly, you should be able to hit a T16 just as easily as a T20. If you feel the need to shoot two fat numbers to set up an out you should probably spend more time on the practice board. Maybe join flight school and work on the accuracy drill.
       
    7. eldon

      eldon New Member

      eric this is eldon really you would use all three ill go for it in two and if i miss i have one left in my hand to finesh.take a shoot dont risk a lose by being a wimp phil talor 15 time world champ 170 167 161 122 131 outs to win when his appo. was under 40 eric a woss bag
       
    8. Jacob

      Jacob New Member

      I agree, 3 darts in hand go the 20's. 2 darts in hand either go for t20+d10, or if i'm in the mood 2, t16+d16.

      Very correct about %'s. ;-) & forget the hater, he's simply jealous he doesn't have a wonderful website like you, or the audience to listen to him barrage you with insults as if he were 7 years old.

      Keep up the good work E, anyone with any sense will listen :D
       
    9. Jacob

      Jacob New Member

      ROFLMAO!!! Bahahaha. I wanna play you!!!

      80 - 60 = 10 (d5)?????????   I think NOT!!

      80 - 60 = 20 (d10 with dart 2)
      Miss into single 10
      20 - 10 = 10 (d5 with only 1 dart left you muppet!)

      But really I read it, laughed, wrote this, still laughing now, 80-60=10....

      bahahahaha
       
    10. Rowan

      Rowan Guest

      With 3 darts and 80 left id always probs go for the 20s and if hitting say a single 20 with my first dart then id go for another single 20 for to leave tops&nbsp;<div>on my final dart on the other hand&nbsp;</div><div>
      </div><div>if ive got 80 left with 2 darts only then id go for treble 16 and then dble 16&nbsp;</div><div>and often have won games with such ..often the way you go is also if your feeling confident at that specific time when throwing as confidence in Darts is all good &nbsp; :)</div>
       
    11. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      Not really sure what your point was because your post is hard to read but if you are suggesting it's better to go for 16's with 3 darts then the 20's then I disagree and will all day long.

      For one, I can go for the T20 D10 option which is technically the same as a T16, D16 from the standpoint of hitting what you aim at, but missing is where these differ.&nbsp; If I miss on the T20 and hit the S20 then all I need is another S20 and a D20 for the win.&nbsp; I've done it countless times.&nbsp; On the other hand a miss to the S16 when shooting for the T16 leaves me 64 which can only be single doubled by hitting S14 and DB.&nbsp; That's less likely then a S20 D20 combo.

      Of course, you could just shoot for the T16/T8 to leave D8/D20 but that's a lower percentage shot then a S20D20 is.

      As for being a Wos Bag, I'd rather be one of those (whatever they are) then a conformist shooting for the poorer shot.
       
    12. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      Thanks for the input and I agree 100%
       
    13. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      Thanks for the reply Warnock!&nbsp; Always great to see your feedback.
       
    14. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      Listening to the World Champ match between Pipe and Smith, Smith went for the 16's on 80 remaining and the commentator (not sure his name but it wasn't John) called out "Madness! Madness!!" -- Smith missed the shot but did win the leg next throw.
       
    15. kimber

      kimber Moderator Site Moderator

      T20 D10. Well worth it to me to shoot at the trip and possibly get two darts at the out. Still a two dart out if I catch a 5 or a 1. And, as mentioned, a T5 leaves a 65 which is a great 2 dart out via the bull.
       
    16. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      and best of all S20, S20 leaves D20 :D
       
    17. kimber

      kimber Moderator Site Moderator

      That's the most likely scenario for sure. And I'll admit to aiming for a "high triple" occasionally. :)
       
    18. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      I should note that this was written when Phil had only won 11 championships (lol) not the 16 he eventually got to. It was also at a time we didn't have a good an idea how well the best hit the trips (more like 42% then the originally thought 33%) but I think the point is only emphasized by that.
       
    19. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

    20. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      That of course, is when throwing at the triple....thus with a 50.2% chance of hitting the single rather than the double with all three darts I'd continue to offer the S20, S20, D20 as THE option for 80 out.
       

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